For 2024 we expect lower growth, lower inflation and limited interest rate easing. We expect global GDP growth will reach 2.8%, down from an expected 3.0% in 2023 but anticipate acceleration in 2025. 2024 will be significant politically with the US Presidential Election likely to be most consequential globally.
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There will only be limited scope for rate cuts until there is evidence of easing labour market pressures.
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US outlook
The US economy looks set to slow in 2024, though avoid recession, ahead of November’s Presidential election.
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Eurozone outlook
Lacklustre growth looks set to persist against a backdrop of weaker demand and a mild rise in unemployment.
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China outlook
China’s reliance on central government stimulus is delivering an unbalanced economy, and the upswings look set to fade into 2025.
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UK outlook
After a tough year, the UK is expected to be on the cusp of recession in 2024, with modest growth in 2025.
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Japan outlook
Japan is edging towards a turning point in its battle with deflation, though economic growth is likely to slow.
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Emerging markets outlook
Softer global growth and tight financial condition are likely to prove headwinds for emerging markets in 2024.
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