Go to content
Investment Institute
Market Updates

May Monthly Investment Strategy - Joseki in international trade

KEY POINTS

Markets buoyed by further tariff easing, but tariff level has increased sharply and trade deals are unlikely to restore status quo ante. US fiscal bill may cause further market jitters as Moodys sovereign downgrade suggests.
Tariffs have caused GDP volatility with first US contraction in three years in Q1. Underlying growth strong in Q1, but this to fade and we forecast mild US recession.
Elsewhere tariffs have added to upside in GDP, although again likely temporary. We expect deceleration in global activity in H2, with mild recession in Eurozone.
Countries look set to offset weakening with domestic policy. ECB and BoE likely to ease more than markets price, BoC to continue easing. PBoC to add liquidity boosts from now and BoJ to hike once more this year.
Fiscal policy also used. Underway in Eurozone. Though China now to see less urgency. Several EM continue to ease fiscal policy, with or without the required space.

Related Materials

May Op-ed - Beyond Tariffs
Download May Op-Ed (383.41 KB)
May 2025 Strategy Deck
Download May 2025 Strategy Deck (1.15 MB)
View all articles
Asset Class

Take two: US inflation rises; China’s GDP growth rate eases

by AXA Investment Managers 21 July 2025 (3 min read)

Investment Institute

Market Views Market Updates

One for all, and JGBs

by Chris Iggo 18 July 2025 (5 min read)

Investment Institute

Asset Class

Take two: Fed cautions over tariffs; China’s CPI moves into growth territory

by AXA Investment Managers 14 July 2025 (3 min read)

Investment Institute

    Disclaimer

    The information on this website is intended for investors domiciled in Switzerland.

    AXA Investment Managers Switzerland Ltd (AXA IM) is not liable for unauthorised use of the website.

    This website is for advertising and informational purpose only. The published information and expression of opinions are provided for personal use only. The information, data, figures, opinions, statements, analyses, forecasts, simulations, concepts and other data provided by AXA IM in this document are based on our knowledge and experience at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice.

    AXA IM excludes any warranty (explicit or implicit) for the accuracy, completeness and up-to-dateness of the published information and expressions of opinion. In particular, AXA IM is not obliged to remove information that is no longer up to date or to expressly mark it a such. To the extent that the data contained in this document originates from third parties, AXA IM is not responsible for the accuracy, completeness, up-to-dateness and appropriateness of such data, even if only such data is used that is deemed to be reliable.

    The information on the website of AXA IM does not constitute a decision aid for economic, legal, tax or other advisory questions, nor may investment or other decisions be made solely on the basis of this information. Before any investment decision is made, detailed advice should be obtained that is geared to the client's situation.

    Past performance or returns are neither a guarantee nor an indicator of the future performance or investment returns. The value and return on an investment is not guaranteed. It can rise and fall and investors may even incur a total loss.

    AXA Investment Managers Switzerland Ltd.

    You are now leaving the AXA IM CH AG website.

    AXA IM Schweiz AG is authorized as well as regulated by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA and is not responsible for the content of external websites.

    Go back Continue
    Go back Continue