Take Two: OECD expects global GDP to reaccelerate in 2027; Eurozone inflation rises

What do you need to know?

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) expects global economic growth to accelerate to 3.1% in 2027, up from 2.9% in 2026. However, both forecasts represent a slowdown from the 3.2% growth it anticipates for 2025. Better financial conditions, artificial intelligence investment and macroeconomic policies have supported activity, though “underlying fragilities are increasing”, the OECD said. It added that stronger growth would emerge “if governments further advanced structural reforms. In particular, regulatory reforms could boost business dynamism and productivity growth”. The OECD also anticipates that inflation will be back to target in almost all major economies by mid-2027.

Around the world

Eurozone annual inflation rose unexpectedly to 2.2% in November, from 2.1% in October, surpassing the European Central Bank’s 2% target for the third consecutive month and boosting expectations that it will hold its key deposit rate at 2% its 18 December meeting. Core inflation, which excludes food, energy, alcohol and tobacco, remained at 2.4%. The Eurozone economy expanded by 0.3% in the third quarter (Q3), separate data showed – revised up from the previous estimate of 0.2% and faster than Q2’s 0.1%. Elsewhere, in China business activity expanded at a slower pace in November; its composite Purchasing Managers’ Index eased to 51.2 from 51.8 in October - a reading above 50 indicates expansion. 

Figure in focus: $44.2bn

US online spending rose 7.7% to hit $44.2bn during Cyber Week – the five-day shopping period from Thanksgiving through to Black Friday and Cyber Monday, according to Adobe. Artificial intelligence (AI) services helped boost sales, enabling consumers to compare products and prices across categories such as electrical appliances and toys. On Cyber Monday, in the peak evening hours between 8pm and 10pm, consumers spent $16m every minute, Adobe said. Overall Cyber Monday hit a record $14.25bn in online spending. Adobe expects the full holiday season of 1 November to 31 December to generate online sales of $253.4bn, up 5.3% year on year.

Words of wisdom 

Bioeconomy: The bioeconomy refers to activities that use biological resources to deliver sustainable solutions and drive circularity. This includes products and services supporting sectors such as agriculture, forestry, fishing, food and healthcare. The European Commission (EC) recently introduced a new Bioeconomy Strategy, to “build a clean, competitive and resilient European economy”. It said by providing alternatives to critical raw materials, it will move towards “a more circular and decarbonised economy and can decrease dependence on fossil imports”. The estimated value of the European Union bioeconomy including goods and services is some €2.7trn.

What’s coming up?

On Monday, Japan reports its final estimate of Q3 GDP growth while on Tuesday, Australia’s central bank holds its monetary policy meeting. On Wednesday China issues its latest inflation data and both Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers hold their respective interest rate setting meetings. In October, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.0%, though the minutes of its meeting showed policymakers’ views differed over the potential for a December reduction. On Friday, the UK reports monthly GDP data.

Our 2026 Outlook is now live on the AXA IM Investment Institute – read it here